This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon: October 5, 2008- Maybe it's too easy to think of Blaine Luetkemeyer and Judy Baker as the country mouse and the city mouse. True, one lives in small St. Elizabeth, where he owns a bank and an insurance company, and the other lives in buzzing Columbia, working for major health-care systems.
And true, one has been away from politics for a while, while the other has kept busy as a state representative.
But maybe it's too easy because the Republican, Luetkemeyer, and the Democrat, Baker, don't just represent different places and world views. They also represent the nuances that make Missouri a state that often votes one way but could go the other.
Baker, for instance, is married to Dr. John D. Baker, a Baptist minister. She understands some cultural issues better for that, says Marvin Overby, a political science professor at the University of Missouri at Columbia.
And Luetkemeyer previously headed the Missouri Division of Tourism, Overby says. "I think he understands development."
Over the next few days, you'll find updated profiles on each, parts of which first ran before the primary elections, where both Luetkemeyer and Baker beat back other candidates eager to represent the 9th. You'll also find a Q and A with each, where they look at issues important to them and to voters.
But first, here's a look back at the district, what's at stake and, thanks to future redistricting, whether or not any of it really matters.
THIS OLD SHED
Watch ads from the primaries, and you'll get a good feel for the 9th. Many, from Republicans and Democrats, featured tractors, livestock and muddy boots.
In one ad, Luetkemeyer is shown hunting, riding a tractor and perched on a ladder, hammering nails into an old shed. Just like that shed, he says, Congress is broken and needs to be fixed.
Baker's image isn't quite so rural.
"I can't remember seeing Judy Baker on a tractor," says Dave Robertson, a political science professor at the University of Missouri - St. Louis.
The 9th district encompasses the rural southwest border of Iowa and the rural western border of Illinois, but it also holds Columbia and parts of St. Charles County. It leans Republican, with the Congressional Quarterly reporting 59 percent of votes going to President Bush in 2004. And it's been in Republican hands with Rep. Kenny Hulshof since 1996. Before that, the district was represented by Democrat Harold Volkmer for 20 years.
Regardless of their roots, Baker and Luetkemeyer both understand what it is to win a good fight. In the primaries, the two faced a crowded ballot, from a former MU football star to a Lake St. Louis state rep and doctor on the Republican side, to a political fighter and veteran politicians on the Democrats' side.
Now, the two face each other, and both candidates' strengths also appear to be their weaknesses.
Baker lives in the heart of the Democrats' base in Columbia, which can be good, Overby says. "The other edge of the sword here is to people outside of Columbia, she's easy to perceive as a Columbia liberal."
Baker leans further to the left of the median 9th district voter than Luetkemeyer does to the right, Overby says.
Despite Republican leanings in the district, though, "he's going to be swimming upstream against a Democratic wave that's likely to put Nixon in the governor's mansion and that's likely to put Obama in the White House," Overby says.
Hulshof is the wildcard in that equation, though. Democrats might vote for Obama at the top of the ticket and for Hulshof for governor, "because they see him as being a local kid, someone they know," Overby says.
Rep. B. J. Marsh, a Republican from Springfield, has worked with both Baker and Luetkemeyer. "I think it's gonna be close," he says. "I think that congressional area is very fortunate to have two people who are as capable as both of the candidates are."
More than any other issue important to voters, the economy is and will be paramount, Robertson says, and it could dominate for years, as the economy slows and prices rise.
Both candidates seem to recognize that.
"Every voter has the economy on their mind," Baker says.
"As we go around the district, the most important thing is the economy," Luetkemeyer says. "And there's a lot of things that go into that issue."
HOT POTATO
Ads will air, swipes will be traded, but will any of this matter in two years?
Good question, Overby and Robertson agree. After the 2010 census, the country will redistrict and Missouri will probably lose one congressional seat.
"There will not be a 9th district in three years," Overby says.
And most likely, two incumbents will end up in the same district and have to fight it out in 2012. Who will that be?
Too many variables to tell, Robertson says. "It's hard to know how this is going to play out."
If Jay Nixon is elected governor, and there's split control with Republicans, Robertson says the new maps will benefit incumbents. But if one party dominates, it may carve the districts up to its own advantage.
However those new maps are drawn, one district will be lost, and one legislator will be out.
ALL'S QUIET ON THE ELECTION FRONT
After the primaries, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reportedly reserved $1 million for Baker for advertising.
And in August, the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee swung through Columbia. There, U.S. Rep. Tom Cole, of Oklahoma, told the Columbia Daily Tribune he thought the contest was a competitive one.
But for all that backing, Overby says things have been pretty quiet so far -- not many commercials, few signs, few radio spots. And that's strange, Overby says, for a race the National Journal counts as one of the top 50 competitive races.
So far, each candidate is using classic moves from their party's play books: Baker is trying to tie Luetkemeyer to an unpopular administration, Overby says, and Luetkemeyer's trying to tie Baker to an unpopular Congress.
And though the ads haven't fully rolled out just yet, there's still some pretty good swiping from each camp.
Luetkemeyer has accused Baker of padding her resume and mismanaging University Physicians during her time there from 2000 to 2002. He filed a Sunshine Law request to have the matter looked into. That filing was denied.
Baker protested a Luetkemeyer ad in which the endorsement was at the beginning rather than the end.
The final factor in this election is the general mood of the country. It's a generically bad year for Republicans, Overby says, and a generically good year for Democrats. Everything else being equal, he says, Democrats around the country are positioned to do well.
Still, the Congressional Quarterly forecasts that the race leans Republican.
"It's a rural district," Robertson says. "It's a district that elected Kenny Hulshof and was very happy with Kenny Hulshof."
And that's the story of the 9th district, the state, and maybe even the country in this election.
Like the city mouse and the country mouse, nothing is quite so simple.
Kristen Hare is a freelance writer in Lake St. Louis.