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And then there were 2: In the 9th, it's Republican Luetkemeyer and Democrat Baker

This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon: August 5, 2008 - Tuesday night ended a hot day and a hot race in the primaries for Missouri's 9th congressional district, where nine candidates had vied for their parties' nominations.

Republican winner Blaine Luetkemeyer, a former state rep from Elizabeth, spent the morning knocking on doors in Miller County.

Democratic winner state Rep. Judy Baker of Columbia greeted voters in Franklin, Callaway and Boone counties, at coffee shops and polling locations.

In other congressional contests, Democrat William C. Haas will face incumbent Republican Todd Akin in the Second District. William Lacy Clay will face Libertarian Robb E. Cunningham in the First District. And incumbent Democrat Russ Carnahan will face Republican Chris Sander and Libertarian Kevin Babcock in the Third District.

Both Luetkemeyer and Baker thanked voters for coming out in the Ninth District. 

And later that night, both thanked supporters again for getting them through the primaries in a district that's traditionally voted Republican but is up for grabs this year.

"What I hear is that people are in the mood for change," Baker said Tuesday night from Columbia. With more than 22,000 votes (44 percent of the total), Baker beat Steve Gaw, a former House speaker and her nearest rival, who won nearly 16,000 votes (31 percent of the total).

Luetkemeyer wanted change, too, he said from his campaign office in Columbia. With more than 21,000 votes (almost 40 percent of the vote),  Luetkemeyer beat state Rep. Bob Onder, who won more than 15,000 votes (29 percent of the total).  

But how the two define that change is, of course, pretty different.

ALSO RANS

Other candidates who wanted to replace U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof, a Republican who won his party's gubernatorial nomination, were Gaw, Marion County Presiding Commissioner Lyndon Bode, and former senator Ken Jacob on the Democratic side, and Onder, Rep. Danie Moore, R-Fulton, former MU football star Brock Olivo and St. Peters' resident Dan Bishir on the Republican side.

Gaw's campaign manager, Jeremiah Levine, credited Baker with consolidating votes in Boone county, as well as edging them out in Franklin, Warren and St. Charles.

Onder credited strong turnout in Luetkemeyer's home county Tuesday night at the Holiday Inn in Lake St. Louis.

"God bless you all and God bless America," Onder said to a crowd of about 30. He stepped away to shake hands, then came back to the mic.

"Let's have some cake, and I think the bar's still open."

ON TO NOVEMBER

Make a collage of the 9th, and you' ll see cowboy boots, shiny dress shoes, farmland, suburbs and the city.

It stretches from Columbia to parts of St. Charles County, the rural southwest border of Iowa and the rural western border of Illinois.

The candidates represented diverse views and issues as well, but like in many primaries, Marvin Overby, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia, saw a lot of "interfamily squabbling," with candidates who agree generally on issues make the issue more about who's electable and ethical.

So where do they go from here?

What matters to voters in the 9th seem to be the same things that matter nationwide.

"The economy and its various aspects," says Terry Jones, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. That includes the price of gas, job creation, securing and keeping healthcare.

The Democrats will be making the general election a referendum on the current presidential administration, Overby says. "Judy Baker is a fairly progressive candidate, pro-choice, very much interested in health-care issues," Overby says. "She says change about as much as Barack Obama."

While the Democrats try to make the campaign about President George W. Bush's policies, the Republicans are already linking Baker to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and "her elitist Democrat values." For her part, Baker dismissed that attitude as the same old politics that voters have rejected, citing her ability to attract urban and rural voters.

Baker says she's concerned with the economy, health care and strengthening the middle class.

"Judy Baker has considerable credentials on an issue that has high prominence in the election. That is health care," Jones says.

For Luetkemeyer, the biggest issue is energy prices and the economy. "They are sort of one and the same."

He supports offshore drilling, building new refineries and a total energy package including nuclear energy, wind and alternative.

And he doesn't want to raise taxes.

But a factor possibly in Baker's favor may be the strong social stance Luetkemeyer took in the primary, which Overby thinks could turn off traditionally independent voters who are more concerned with issues such as the economy this year.

PRESIDENTAIL TAIL WIND

Through November, Democrats could get a bit of a tailwind from the presidential election, Jones says.

"They'll need it, because this has been a Republican-leaning district."

And to win, Democrats need independents who usually vote Republican or an influx of new voters out for Obama who will also vote for other Democrats on the ticket.

"I think it's one of the things that Democrats are banking on," Overby says.

They're betting Obama will spend a lot of money in Missouri up until election day. And that will make the Republicans nervous, Overby says. "McCain is not doing as well here as Bush did, either in 2000 or 2004."

Money raised so far in the 9th is a factor as well, at least to Overby.

Baker raised $404,672, of which $355,747 came from individual donations, $38,925 came from political action committees and $10,000 came from the candidate.

Luetkemeyer raised $466,988, of which $133,488 came from individual donations, $8,500 came from political action committees, and $325,000 came from the candidate.

Jones doesn't see the amount of money candidates raised, or where it came from, as anything more than inside politics. Overby does, though.

And to Overby, it says this is a year when the Democratic donor base is fired up, and the Republicans aren't, with some reporting that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had already reserved $1 million in ad time.

But still, the amount either party has raised is low, compared with other races around the state, Overby says. Kay Barnes, a Democratic candidate in the 6th congressional district, has raised $1,8 million, with $10,600 of that from the candidate.

For both sides in the 9th, it looks like the fight has just started.

"I think it's gonna be a challenging race," Onder said. "This is a year that you can't take anything for granted."

Kristen Hare is a freelance writer in Lake St. Louis.