This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon: October 15, 2008 - The new St. Louis police chief, Daniel Isom, begins his Oct. 10 blog with a quote from Gandhi: "You must be the change you wish to see in the world."
That the chief has a blog is heartening; that he quotes Gandhi may seem surprising -- until you read his biography. Chief Isom has a master's degree in public administration from St. Louis University and a Ph.D. in criminology from the University of Missouri-St. Louis. He earned his degrees while working full time as a St. Louis police officer.
So, we know we have a hard worker at the helm, but what else should we expect from a police chief with advanced degrees in public administration and criminology? In a word, research.
One hears the term "evidence-based policing" tossed around by police commanders these days as if they actually understood what it means. Most do not; our new chief does.
If there was ever a time when we could use a law enforcement leader who appreciates the contributions of research to effective policing, now is it. Looking back over the past half century, St. Louis has had periods of truly spectacular crime increases; the late 1960s was one such period, the early 1990s was another. During a crime boom, the police are barely able to keep pace with the mounting mayhem, much less conduct research on the effectiveness of this or that enforcement strategy.
The St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department has a unique opportunity to engage in smart, evidence-based policing. Crime rates in St. Louis remain well below the levels of 15 years ago. The knowledge base underlying effective policing has expanded enormously over the same period. Chief Isom is not only an intelligent consumer of the new policing research, he has contributed to it. That's what a Ph.D. dissertation is all about: conducting and defending an original piece of research.
Although crime is not at crisis levels, it remains a worrisome public issue, and one problem is especially vexing: the homicide rate. Homicides are up more than 40 percent over last year at this time.
Curiously, however, other violent crimes have not increased nearly as much. Robberies are about even with last year's pace; serious assaults are down slightly, although gun assaults are up about 10 percent. Normally, changes in nonlethal and lethal violence track one another closely, so why are homicides outpacing other violent crimes?
There are several possibilities.
- Maybe assault victims are not receiving medical treatment as rapidly as in the past, turning assaults into homicides.
- Maybe the police are not recording robberies and assaults as faithfully or accurately as before; it's much harder to lose a dead body than a victim's report of a robbery or assault.
- Perhaps more victims are failing to report robberies and assaults to the police.
A police commander told me that the streets are filled with high powered weapons and more bullets are found in the bodies of homicide victims. At least that is what he had heard.
All of these are plausible reasons for why homicides are climbing while other violent offenses are not, but which one is true? It is essential that we know the answer to form an effective response.
It makes no sense to blame the police for undercounting crimes if victims are not reporting them or getting the medical treatment they used to. There is no reason to speculate about the number of gunshot wounds in homicide victims; they can be counted and the count can be compared with last year's. If there are more powerful weapons on the street now than a year ago, that should be evident in the thousands of firearms the police recover or seize.
In other words, the question of why homicides are outpacing other violent crimes, when they typically track together, is a research question. It can be answered by careful and thoughtful analysis of information the police either collect routinely (e.g., firearms recovered) or can gather if need be (e.g., hospital records of homicide victims).
The police face no challenge as serious as reducing the number of homicides. The St. Louis police have the information systems needed to point them in the right direction toward an effective response. And the police and public have a leader who understands the importance of good research for smart policing.
In Gandhi's words, he can be the change he seeks and the city needs.
Richard Rosenfeld is director of the Ph.D. program in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the Univrsity of Missouri St. Louis. This semester, he is at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York.