This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Feb. 3, 2011 - WASHINGTON -- The key to maintaining stability during Egypt's transition to a new government will be its military, Illinois' U.S. senators agreed Thursday, and the United States should do all it can to support a peaceful transfer of power.
At a joint forum with Illinois constituents, Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Mark Kirk, R-Ill., said they generally agreed with President Barack Obama's approach in pressing for a relatively quick and peaceful transition in Egypt that would maintain U.S. influence.
Kirk, a former Naval intelligence officer, said in response to a question from the Beacon that it is essential "to continue military assistance to the Egyptian army. It is the central institution which will prevent the collapse of the state. And that is very important for U.S. national security."
Noting that "a number of candidates [are] emerging who could look to a long-term, secular, responsible future for Egypt," Kirk said "we should do everything we can to avoid a strategic reversal like what the United States suffered in 1979 in Iran -- which led to 40 years of terrorism."
In a Senate speech on Wednesday, Kirk had warned that "while U.S. policy should support human rights and democracy, we face the risk that the Muslim Brotherhood (al-Ikhwan al-Muslimun) could seize power" in Egypt.
Kirk added that, "decisive action and influence now will benefit the national security and economic of the United States later. The defeat of the Muslim Brotherhood and victory for Egyptian secular nationalists will be the best way to avoid war and restore economic confidence to the Middle East and wider world."
Durbin, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said "we don't know, if [Egyptian President] Mubarak left tomorrow, what would fill the void.... If the void is filled by the Muslim Brotherhood or Islamic extremists, then think about what that means -- not only in terms of the future of Egypt, but our relationship and our security alliance with the country."
Durbin added that Obama "has been walking this tightrope. Yes, we are for democratic values. We want an orderly transition. We want a stable government there and we want to work with that government," he said.
"The point that Senator Kirk made I think is the bottom line here: the Army in Egypt, the military, has really been the rock and foundation for their nation for the last 50 years. I think that, as long as we have a strong relationship with them, and they are moving towards a more stable country, it could work out well.
"But there are a lot of questions still remaining."
Kirk, who has Obama's former Senate seat, said, "My hope is that the transition [in Egypt] is fairly quick. The president has been fairly decisive on this topic."
Durbin described the current U.S. challenge as "a delicate and tricky situation. We have had Egypt as an ally since 1979 ... and have made massive investments in the security of Egypt since then, putting about as much money into Egypt as into Israel, year after year.
"We're caught in this dilemma. From a security viewpoint, Egypt is a great ally. From the viewpoint of their democratic performance as a government, they wouldn't get high grades."
Durbin said "what happened in Tunisia has triggered actions in many other Arab states, starting with Egypt and including Yemen and Jordan and perhaps others to follow."
He attributed the unrest to two factors: "first, the weakness of the local economies. Many of the countries that now have demonstrators in the streets are countries which have had government subsidies for basics, like fuel and bread. The governments have cut back on subsidies while unemployment has gone up, and the people are angry - so they go out and protest.
"The second thing is that people in many of these Arab states, maybe for the first time, are speaking out about establishing some sort of a democratic approach.
"I look at Jordan and that really troubles me, because I think -- even though it is a monarchy, which is antithetical to our ideal of government -- King Hussein has really tried to work hard to have a more open society. And now he's facing pressure. I'm not sure how this all ends."