This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, April 7, 2011 - The Missouri House voted overwhelmingly today to approve a map that lays out boundaries for the state's remaining eight congressional districts. As expected, the map does away with the district now represented by U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-St. Louis.
But the House's 106-53 favorable vote won't be enough, if Gov. Jay Nixon dislikes the final redistricting product enough to veto it. The House needs 109 votes to override any gubernatorial veto of the final map.
The version approved Wednesday was crafted by state Rep. John Diehl, R-Town and Country, who chairs the House redistricting panel. Although four Democrats ended up voting in favor of the map, three Republicans defected to vote against it. The final vote left the GOP-controlled House three short of a veto-proof majority.
The result underscores how Republican leaders in the state House and Senate must engage in a delicate balancing act. They need to hold the line on GOP defections in their own ranks, while at the same time bringing in enough Democrats -- at least in the House -- to withstand Nixon's potential veto. The Senate has a huge Republican majority -- 26-8 -- so the GOP can lose three of their own and still pass a veto-proof map.
The Missouri Senate also is likely to approve a redistricting map that differs dramatically from the one that just passed the House. Reaching a compromise may endanger the Republican quest in both chambers for veto-proof majorities.
For instance, state Sen. Jason Crowell, R-Cape Girardeau, has already declared his opposition to the House map because it puts most of suburban Jefferson County in the otherwise largely rural 8th District, which spans southeast Missouri. Crowell had indicated support for a Senate version, approved this week by a committee, that keeps most of Jefferson County out of the 8th District.
Neither the House-approved map, nor the one before the Senate, does much for Carnahan's political future. Both cut up the current 3rd District, which he represents, and split it among several other districts. If he wants to remain in the U.S. House, Carnahan will most likely have to decide to run in another district -- such as the 1st or the 2nd, both of which get chunks of his current turf.
The House map puts all of the city of St. Louis in the 1st, which is now represented by U.S. Rep. William Lacy Clay, D-St Louis. The 2nd now is represented by Republican Todd Akin of Town and Country. The House map appears to give Akin's district a few more Democrats than it has now. The Senate version appears to give Akin a lot more Democratic territory.
Carnahan and his allies have known for some time that he was at the top of the list of vulnerable members of Congress because of redistricting. The national census last year determined that Missouri's population growth was less than some other states. The state saw most of the population loss in Clay's district and in rural northern Missouri.
Issac Wood, who follows congressional races for University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato, said in an e-mail, "In all likelihood, Carnahan will be forced to run against another congressman, either Republican Todd Akin or Democrat Lacy Clay. Both would be formidable opponents, especially if the newly-drawn district includes much of their home turf."
Tipping The Scales
Those close to Nixon say privately that he objects to how the House map treats Jefferson County, his home base. The House map carves Jefferson County into three congressional districts, potentially diluting the county's clout as a fast-growing area with Democratic tendencies.
But so far, Nixon has said little during the redistricting process. The proposed Senate map splits Jefferson County into two districts, but much of it would end up in the 2nd.
Although most House Republicans voted in favor of Diehl's map, it also drew opposition from three Republicans: state Reps. Shelly Keeney, R-Marble Hill, Bob Nance, R-Excelsior Springs, and Brent Lasater, R-Independence.
Nance said he voted against the measure because it moved several rural counties in western Missouri into the largely urban 5th District now represented by Democrat Emanuel Cleaver.
"Ray County's a rural county, and we think they should have somebody who is strong in rural issues, just like urban Kansas City needs somebody who's strong on urban issues." Nance said. He contended that mapmakers could have put Ray, Saline and Lafayette counties in different districts.
Diehl said the final legislative map is a work in progress, alluding to the differences between the House and Senate versions. Even though his proposed map didn't get enough votes to override a veto on Wednesday, Diehl noted that there's still a long way to go before the legislature sends a final map to the governor.
"At the end of the day you just keep communicating," Diehl said after the vote. "If you look at the challenges the map had two weeks ago versus one week ago versus yesterday versus today, I think it's trending in the right direction. I think most of the concerns are localized. And I don't have any fault or quibble with them. Some areas affect the individual members more than others."
House Minority Leader Mike Talboy, D-Kansas City, said there's been "significant" negative feedback from the Senate. He was alluding in particular to Crowell.
And Rep. Mike Colona, D-St. Louis, said that while Democrats may be outnumbered in both chambers, they still could hold enough cards to influence the process.
"When this bill comes back from the Senate or we see it coming from a conference committee, it's going to be a much different ballgame," said Colona. "You're going to have not just some of our members on this side and the members on that side scratching their head. But you're going to have national people begin to play."
"What's going to happen when we get a conference committee report?" he continued. "Is Republican leadership in Washington going to pay attention? Yeah, they are. Is the Democratic leadership going to pay attention? Yeah, they are. Everybody's watching."
Democratic Dissension
Four Democrats -- state Reps. Jamilah Nasheed, D-St. Louis, Karla May, D-St. Louis, Penny Hubbard, D-St. Louis, and Michael Brown, D-Kansas City -- crossed party lines to vote for Diehl's map.
In an interview, Nasheed said Diehl's map was "the best that we can do."
"It strengthens the Democratic Party within the city of St. Louis on the federal level," Nasheed said. "To me, there are two Democratic parties. You have [African-American Democrats] and white Democrats. The city is so polarized that I feel this is going to bridge that polarization gap in St. Louis because we have one congressman that everybody has to deal with."
Nasheed said her vote wasn't necessarily throwing Carnahan under the bus because she said he's a seasoned politician in the Show Me State. "He has a lot of options," Nasheed said. "His political future doesn't end with redistricting."
Brown said he wanted to make sure the map preserved representation in Kansas City, referrring to Cleaver's 5th District. He added that the final map could change if the Senate has different ideas."I want to make it to conference so that whatever negotiation we have, we get the most fair we can get," Brown said.
Still, drawing Carnahan out of a district sparked the ire of a number of Democratic lawmakers from the St. Louis area, including state Rep. Clem Smith, D-Velda Village Hills. "I believe the St. Louis area has the population to have those three reps," Smith said. He added that the House map "decimated" Carnahan's district.
Both Clay and Carnahan had blasted the House map in a joint statement last week, saying in a joint statement that it "emphasized partisanship over fairness." House Democrats made unsuccessful attempts to propose alternatives that could give Carnahan a more advantageous position in the 2012 election.
The first was proposed by state Rep. Ron Casey, D-Crystal City. It which would have included parts of south St. Louis County and Jefferson County in the 2nd District, making it far more Democratic that it is now.
The other alternative was brought forth by Colona, which would have kept Carnahan in the 3rd District and redrawn its boundaries. Colona's 3rd Disrict would have included much of the territory that it has now -- from south St. Louis to Jefferson and Ste. Genevieve counties -- and expanded it to include Crawford, Washington and St. Francois counties.
Both Casey and Colona's alternatives would have put two Republican members of Congress -- U.S. Reps. Blaine Luetkemeyer, R-St. Elizabeth, and Vicky Hartzler, R-Harrisonville -- in the same district.
Casey's amendment failed 99-57, while Colona's measure failed 106-51.
Talboy didn't appear too concerned about the four Democrats who backed Diehl's map. "A lot of our folks would like to see something different and we're a long way to the end of this process," the Democratic leader said.
Jason Rosenbaum, a freelance writer in St. Louis, covers state government and politics.
