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Westward, ho: St. Charles County has boomed over past 10 years, but leaders worry about region

This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, March 14, 2011 - In Wentzville, the city staff had some bets going about how they'd fare in the 2010 census. Everyone knew the growth in population would be huge. Still, they underestimated, says Mayor Paul Lambi.

"We thought it would be closer to 210 percent."

From 2000 to 2010, Wentzville grew 322 percent.

Over the past 10 years, anyone betting on growth in St. Charles County would be a winner. During that time, according to the most recent numbers from the 2010 U.S. Census, St. Charles County grew by by 27 percent. (The 2010 census put the county's population at 360,484; in 2000, the population was 283,883.)

That growth showed itself in new construction, new homes, roads, businesses, people and the transformation of small, mostly rural towns into busy suburbs.

Again, no surprise for anyone living here.

"I think some people might be surprised that so much of our growth is at the expense of St. Louis," Lambi says.

In the city of St. Louis, the population decreased by 1.7 percent, or 29,000 people, to 319,294, making the city smaller than St. Charles County for the first time. In St. Louis County, the population dropped by 1.7 percent to 998,954 -- a loss of more than 17,000 people.

"We haven't added new families," Lambi says. "We've just been sloshing people back and forth."

He and other leaders in St. Charles County worry about what that means for the region as they continue looking ahead at a growth spurt they're sure hasn't yet hit its peak.

Over The Bridge

Thirty years ago, even 20, St. Charles County was a different place.

"You used to have these little pockets of communities," says Wayne Anthony, director of community development with St. Charles County. "Lake Saint Louis was kind of out there by its lonesome."

Today, all those pockets have filled in and spread together. "And now I think we are really more suburban in character than rural," Anthony says.

And more populated by families. In a series of comparisons Anthony put together looking at counties in the region using 2009 American Community Survey data from the Census Bureau, St. Charles County was made up of married couple family households at a rate of 60.2 percent. St. Louis County was 48.2 and the city of St. Louis was 23.7.

To most interviewed, it seems that the people moving to the county are coming from St. Louis city and county, as they have historically.

According to a 2010 citizen satisfaction surveyconducted last year in Wentzville, 8 percent of the residents have lived there 20 years or longer. The majority, 47 percent, has lived there between five and 10 years.

In O'Fallon, city spokesman Tom Drabelle says they've also seen a migration in from outlying rural areas. Major companies such as Citigroup and MasterCard, both located in O'Fallon, are drawing in people from out of the area, too.

Another change -- while St. Charles County as a whole is still overwhelmingly white, there is a little more racial and ethnic diversity. Over the past 10 years, the white population in the county has declined slightly from 94.7 percent to 92 percent, while the black, Asian and Hispanic populations have nearly doubled to 3.8, 2.1 and 3 percent respectively.

Wendy Widder lived in St. Louis for 26 years and has lived in the county for the last 12. Widder, a real estate agent, is white. Her husband is black.

"When we first moved out here 12 years ago, he was ecstatic when he saw another black person," she says. Now, they both see more diversity.

"It has changed," she says. "That has changed dramatically."

And it's not just more black people. In O'Fallon, Drabelle says the city has built a cricket field to accommodate the growing East Asian population.

"That field is booked for months in advance," he says.

Still, compared to St. Louis County and city, St. Charles County lags far behind in diversity. In 2010, St. Louis County was 70 percent white, 23 percent black, 3.5 percent Asian and 2.5 percent Hispanic or Latino. In the city, white people made up more than 43 percent, black people 49 percent, Asian 2.9 percent and Hispanic or Latino 3.5 percent. In both places, the black, Asian and Hispanic populations grew slightly, while the white population declined slightly.

While none of the cities in St. Charles County or the county itself is doing anything to attract minorities, minorities move for the same reasons anyone does.

"The reason you move to the county is not affected by race," says Anthony. "It doesn't matter what race you are to want to have good schools, a safe environment and affordable housing."

Schools And Houses

On their websites, both O'Fallon and St. Peters tout their status as one of the country's top 100 places to live. According to Money magazine's annual list, O'Fallon was No. 24, and St. Peter's No. 60 in 2010.

But why?

Money magazine cited O'Fallon's big businesses and low unemployment and crime rates and St. Peter's well-established neighborhoods and affordable housing.

"Every city has its own set of circumstances," says John Sonderegger, public information coordinator with the county. But basically, he says, the lure of St. Charles County started out being affordable homes, "and then it increased to quality of life because of the schools."

Lambi, mayor of Wentzville, learned that the people of Wentzville felt the same, thanks to the citizen satisfaction survey. Eighty-three percent of respondents said safety, security and quality of housing were very important factors in deciding to live in Wentzville. Seventy-six percent said the quality of public schools was very important.

But what's happening in the region can't be discounted either, Lambi says. "You can't ignore what's happened in St. Louis as part of the why."

The continuing challenges of the city's struggling school district are part of that, he says.

And the high crime rate there and low crime rate in St. Charles County is another, adds Steve Ehlmann, St. Charles County executive.

It's also important to note, says Anthony, that the city of St. Louis and St. Louis County have less room to grow than St. Charles.

So What's Next?

In terms of its growth spurt, St. Charles may still be in its tweens.

"We're probably kind of in the middle," Anthony says. The county estimates that its maximum capacity is about 640,000 people, he says, considerably more than the county's current population of 360,484.)

With much more growth ahead, the county and cities within it have several things to consider moving forward, chiefly the very things that brought people out in the first place.

Last November, voters in the Wentzville School District rejected a tax levy to add classrooms to elementary and middle schools and build a new high school. That measure will be on the ballot again in April.

People hate to see their taxes go up, Lambi says. But people are moving to the area specifically for the educational opportunities.

"It's our job as citizens to support that," he says.

Good schools mean higher property values, he adds, and thinks the measure has a chance of passing.

Last month, every district in the county received the "Distinction in Performance" designation from the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education. The designation is given to districts that meet 13 out of 14 standards, including Missouri Assessment Program standards. This is the fifth consecutive year all of the districts have met the standards.

More than 300 schools in the state also met the standards, including the Webster Groves, Ladue, Kirkwood and Rockwood districts, which all had 10 years of "Distinction in Performance."

Housing is another area that needs continued focus.

Cathy Pratt, manager with the engineering development services of St. Peters, says that St. Peters started with young families. They then began adding more upscale homes for those families to move up to. In the last five years, they've added villas for retirees.

The economy has slowed things down in the county, like anywhere else, but most places still have plenty of room to grow, though not the huge stretches of land like 10 or 15 years ago.

In Money magazine's list of Best Places to Live, O'Fallon was also named No. 21 of 25 among towns with affordable homes. The median home sale prices was $172,250.

And despite the downturn in the economy and the housing market, Widder says, home buyers can still find great deals in the county.

For all the reasons people may move to the county, one disadvantage stands out -- the commute.

But, Ehlmann says, it's never stopped people from moving to St Charles County.

It has created heavy traffic, however, and dealing with traffic and congestion was the top concern among Wentzville's residents in the city's satisfaction survey. Bottlenecks along Interstate 70 and Mid Rivers Mall Drive, for instance, or along Highway K in O'Fallon, are problematic, Sonderegger says.

The county and its cities all have transportation plans on the books and in the works, they say. But for now, the drive west along both Interstate 70 and Highway 40 is a slow on most evenings.

Upkeep is also important everywhere.

"Now you have to manage aging resources," Pratt says. "Now our challenge is to keep up with maintenance."

With a slow down of growth in the inner suburbs of the county, including St. Charles and St. Peters, there's less money, she says, and the need to do more with less.

"And that will continue into the future."

Metro, Not Micro

In many ways, the growth in St. Charles County is the same as that in other metro areas around the country for decades, Anthony says. Cities age, people move out to suburbs and the population shifts.

But the health of the city matters to the county, Lambi says. "I'm not sure that we could all exist without the city of St. Louis, without St. Louis being successful."

Anthony agrees. "You want all areas to be viable areas and not decline because one affects another."

And, Ehlmann says, the city of St. Louis should be commended for the things that have worked, including redevelopment, the preservation of historic neighborhoods and successfully getting more people downtown.

Sonderegger said he believes the county needs something the city has: "I think we need to get mass transportation out here."

Many others have not agreed, though.

Most people in St. Charles have cars, Anthony says. "I don't think people who move to the county are expecting to ride public transportation," he says. And so far, he says, there's not much demand for it.

What has come into demand, though, is the county and what it offers. Over the last few decades, St. Charles County has changed dramatically, drawing in people from the city of St. Louis and St. Louis County as the boundaries that define the metro have moved farther and farther west. So will Warrenton be the next boom town?

Unless a big business moves there, Pratt doesn't think so.

"Personally," she says, "I think there's a limit as to how far most of us are willing to drive."

Kristen Hare