About a month ago, Dr. Keith Woeltje’s initial projections plotting the curve of COVID-19 cases in the St. Louis region looked bleak.
“For a couple of days there, it actually looked like we had a steeper curve than New York City. Then things started to flatten out a bit,” said Woeltje, vice president and chief medical information officer at BJC HealthCare.
St. Louis-area hospitals are expected to take on the peak of COVID-19 patients late this week, around Saturday. Updated models from mid-April, which use local data from previous weeks, show that in the most likely scenario, about 700 people will need to be hospitalized at that time. Nearly 180 of those patients will likely be in intensive care units, and around 125 will need ventilators. In a worst-case scenario, those numbers double.